Vermont unemployment rate rises half-point to 6.9 percent

first_imgThe Vermont Unemployment rate rose a half-point in December to a seasonally adjusted 6.9 percent, according to figures released today by the US Department of Labor. This is the highest rate since last spring, when the rate peaked at 7.4 percent last May. The December 2009 rate is exactly one-point higher than the December 2008 rate of 5.9 percent.“All our labor market indicators were down in December, resulting in a fairly large increase in Vermont’s unemployment rate” said Patricia Moulton Powden, Commissioner of the Vermont Department of Labor. “For example, there were a number of previously announced layoff events that took affect in late November and early December. December typically has the highest number of payroll jobs of any month. While we saw an unadjusted increase in jobs this month, it was below typical levels. Since job levels and unemployment rates have been stable for several months now, we will have to wait and see if December was an anomaly.”Seasonal Job GrowthTypically we expect an increase averaging 4,200 jobs in December. Before seasonal adjustment, Total Non-Farm (TNF) jobs grew by only 2,100 or 0.7% over the month. The annual rate unadjusted job growth improved to -1.9% though this will be revised as we complete our annual benchmarking process. This rate of annual loss is much better than what we have seen in the last few months, but this is due to an overstated job loss estimate in December of 2008 rather than any recent change in the job market. Most of the seasonal gains came from Leisure & Hospitality, (5,000 jobs or 18.4%). The largest seasonal declines were observed in Construction, (-1,500 or -11.7%) Manufacturing, (-1,000 or -3.3%) and Professional & Business Services, (-700 or -3.3%). Surprisingly, Retail Trade showed no seasonal growth over November, (-50 jobs or -0.1%).When seasonally adjusted, December payroll jobs fell by 2,400 or -0.8% from November. Only Leisure & Hospitality showed any significant seasonally adjusted growth, (1,100 or 3.6%). Manufacturing (-1,000 or -3.3%) Retail Trade, (-600 or -1.6%) Construction, (-500 or -4.0%) and Professional & Business Services, (-400 or -1.9%) all showed significant job losses.Employment GrowthVermont’s December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by five tenths of a point to 6.9% percent as a result of declining employment and a modest increase in the number of unemployed. Vermont’s labor force fell back closer to the levels seen prior to November. Vermont’s December seasonally adjusted employment, unemployment levels and unemployment rate were statistically different from November levels. For comparison purposes, the US seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December was 10.0 percent, unchanged from the November rate.December unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 4.0 percent in Hartford to 9.2 percent in Newport. Local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted. For comparison, the December unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 6.6 percent, up four-tenths of a point from November 2009 and up 0.7 points from a year ago. The December unadjusted estimates were not statistically different from November values.The planned implementation of the final phase of methodology changes in the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program has been delayed until the January 2010 estimates (published in March). These new procedures are designed to bring state job estimates more in line with national estimates. The initial change in methodology resulted in a sharp shift downward in November and December, 2008 job estimates which now appear to have overestimated job loss. As a result, year over year comparisons for November and December are not valid until we have completed the annual benchmark process. The benchmark process will be complete by January 2010. As we move forward we can expect small sample states like Vermont to exhibit a higher degree of variability in month to month job estimates. As a result of this change in methodology, caution should be used in interpreting single month’s results. CES payroll job numbers are now best understood in the context of their movement over several months as opposed to observed changes in a single month estimates. For details of these changes, please contact Andy Condon at the Vermont Department of Labor at 802-828-4153 or andrew.condon@state.vt.us(link sends e-mail).Regional and state unemployment rates were generally higher in December. Forty-three states and the District of Columbia recorded over-the-month unemployment rate increases, four states registered rate decreases, and three states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the year, jobless rates increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The national unemployment rate was unchanged in December at 10.0 percent but was 2.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier.In December, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 11 states and the District of Columbia and decreased in 39 states. The largest over- the-month increase in employment occurred in Virginia (9,500), followed by Oklahoma (5,000), Oregon (2,900), New Hampshire and Wash ington (2,000 each). New Hampshire, Oklahoma, and Virginia experi enced the largest over-the-month percentage increase in employment (0.3 percent each), followed by the District of Columbia, Hawaii, and Oregon (0.2 percent each). The largest over-the-month decrease in employment occurred in California (-38,800), followed by Texas (-23,900), Ohio (-16,700), Illinois (-16,300), Michigan (-15,700), Wisconsin (-15,200), and Georgia (-15,100). Montana (-1.5 percent) experienced the largest over-the-month percentage decrease in employment, followed by Nevada (-1.0 percent), Iowa and South Dakota (-0.9 percent each), and Vermont (-0.8 percent). Over the year, non- farm employment decreased in all 50 states but increased in the District of Columbia. The largest over-the-year percentage decreases occurred in Wyoming (-6.8 percent), Nevada (-6.6 percent), Michigan (-5.1 percent), and Arizona (-4.8 percent).Regional Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted)The West had the highest regional jobless rate in December, 10.7 per- cent. The Northeast recorded the lowest rate, 9.2 percent. The North- east had a statistically significant rate increase over the month (0.5 percentage point). The South had the only other significant re- gional rate change (0.3 percentage point). Over the year, all four regions registered significant rate increases, the largest of which was in the West (3.3 percentage points). (See table 1.)Among the nine geographic divisions, the Pacific continued to report the highest jobless rate, 11.7 percent in December. The East North Central recorded the next highest rate, 11.3 percent. The West North Central registered the lowest December jobless rate, 7.3 percent, followed by the West South Central, 8.0 percent. The South Atlantic rate (10.3 percent) set a new series high. (All region, division, and state series begin in 1976.) Five divisions experienced statistically significant unemployment rate increases from a month earlier, the largest of which were in East South Central and New England (0.5 percentage point each). No division had a rate decrease. All nine divisions reported significant over-the-year rate increases of at least 1.8 percentage points. The largest of these occurred in the East South Central (3.8 percentage points) and East North Central (3.7 points).State Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted)Michigan again recorded the highest unemployment rate among the states, 14.6 percent in December. The states with the next highest rates were Nevada, 13.0 percent; Rhode Island, 12.9 percent; and South Carolina, 12.6 percent. North Dakota continued to register the lowest jobless rate, 4.4 percent in December, followed by Nebraska and South Dakota, 4.7 percent each. The rate in South Carolina set a new series high, as did the rates in three other states: Delaware (9.0 percent), Florida (11.8 percent), and North Carolina (11.2 percent). The rate in the District of Columbia also set a new series high (12.1 percent). In total, 27 states posted jobless rates significantly lower than the U.S. figure of 10.0 percent, 10 states and the District of Columbia had measurably higher rates, and 13 states had rates that were not ap- preciably different from that of the nation. (See tables A and 3.)Twenty-one states reported statistically significant over-the-month unemployment rate increases in December. Louisiana and Mississippi experienced the largest of these (0.8 percentage point each). One state, South Dakota, saw a statistically significant rate decrease from November (-0.2 percentage point). The remaining 28 states and the District of Columbia registered jobless rates that were not appreciably different from those of a month earlier, though some had changes that were at least as large numerically as the significant changes. (See table B.)All states and the District of Columbia recorded statistically significant increases in their jobless rates from December 2008. The largest of these increases were in Nevada and West Virginia (4.6 percentage points each), closely followed by Alabama (4.5 points) and Michigan (4.4 points). The smallest rate increases occurred in Minnesota and Nebraska (0.8 percentage point each). (See table C.)Nonfarm Payroll Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)In December, 13 states experienced statistically significant over-the- month changes in employment, all of which were decreases. The largest statistically significant job losses occurred in California (-38,800), Ohio (-16,700), and Illinois (-16,300). The smallest statistically significant decreases in employment occurred in Vermont (-2,400), South Dakota (-3,600), and Montana (-6,400). (See tables D and 5.)Over the year, 44 states experienced statistically significant changes in employment, all of which were decreases. The largest statistically significant job losses occurred in California (-579,400), Texas (-276,000), Illinois (-237,300), Florida (-232,400), and Michigan (-207,100). The smallest statistically significant decreases in employ- ment occurred in South Dakota (-10,900), Delaware (-12,100), and Montana (-13,700). (See table E.)____________ The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for December 2009 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, February 2, 2010, at 10:00 a.m. (EST). The Regional and State Unemployment 2009 Annual Averages news release is scheduled to be released on Friday, February 26, 2010, at 10:00 a.m. (EST). The Regional and State Employment and Unemployment news release for January is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, March 10, 2010, at 10:00 a.m. (EST).Table A. States with unemployment rates significantly differ-ent from that of the U.S., December 2009, seasonally adjusted————————————————————– State | Rate(p)————————————————————–United States (1) ……………….| 10.0 |Alaska …………………………| 8.8Arkansas ……………………….| 7.7California ……………………..| 12.4Colorado ……………………….| 7.5Connecticut …………………….| 8.9Delaware ……………………….| 9.0District of Columbia …………….| 12.1Florida ………………………..| 11.8Hawaii …………………………| 6.9Illinois ……………………….| 11.1 |Iowa …………………………..| 6.6Kansas …………………………| 6.6Louisiana ………………………| 7.5Maine ………………………….| 8.3Maryland ……………………….| 7.5Michigan ……………………….| 14.6Minnesota ………………………| 7.4Montana ………………………..| 6.7Nebraska ……………………….| 4.7Nevada …………………………| 13.0 |New Hampshire …………………..| 7.0New Mexico ……………………..| 8.3New York ……………………….| 9.0North Carolina ………………….| 11.2North Dakota ……………………| 4.4Ohio …………………………..| 10.9Oklahoma ……………………….| 6.6Oregon …………………………| 11.0Pennsylvania ……………………| 8.9Rhode Island ……………………| 12.9 |South Carolina ………………….| 12.6South Dakota ……………………| 4.7Texas ………………………….| 8.3Utah …………………………..| 6.7Vermont ………………………..| 6.9Virginia ……………………….| 6.9Wisconsin ………………………| 8.7Wyoming ………………………..| 7.5————————————————————– 1 Data are not preliminary. p = preliminary.Table B. States with statistically significant unemployment rate changesfrom November 2009 to December 2009, seasonally adjusted————————————————————————- | Rate | |———–|———–| Over-the-month State | November | December | rate change(p) | 2009 | 2009(p) |————————————————————————-Colorado …………………..| 6.9 | 7.5 | 0.6Connecticut ………………..| 8.2 | 8.9 | .7Delaware …………………..| 8.6 | 9.0 | .4Florida ……………………| 11.5 | 11.8 | .3Louisiana ………………….| 6.7 | 7.5 | .8Massachusetts ………………| 8.7 | 9.4 | .7Mississippi ………………..| 9.8 | 10.6 | .8Montana ……………………| 6.4 | 6.7 | .3New Mexico …………………| 7.8 | 8.3 | .5New York …………………..| 8.6 | 9.0 | .4 | | |North Carolina ……………..| 10.7 | 11.2 | .5North Dakota ……………….| 4.1 | 4.4 | .3Pennsylvania ……………….| 8.5 | 8.9 | .4South Dakota ……………….| 4.8 | 4.7 | -.2Tennessee ………………….| 10.2 | 10.9 | .7Texas ……………………..| 8.0 | 8.3 | .3Utah ………………………| 6.3 | 6.7 | .4Vermont ……………………| 6.4 | 6.9 | .5Virginia …………………..| 6.6 | 6.9 | .3Washington …………………| 9.0 | 9.5 | .5West Virginia ………………| 8.4 | 9.1 | .7Wisconsin ………………….| 8.2 | 8.7 | .5————————————————————————- p = preliminary.Table C. States with statistically significant unemployment rate changesfrom December 2008 to December 2009, seasonally adjusted————————————————————————- | Rate | |———–|———–| Over-the-year State | December | December | rate change(p) | 2008 | 2009(p) |————————————————————————-Alabama ……………………| 6.5 | 11.0 | 4.5Alaska …………………….| 6.8 | 8.8 | 2.0Arizona ……………………| 6.6 | 9.1 | 2.5Arkansas …………………..| 5.7 | 7.7 | 2.0California …………………| 8.7 | 12.4 | 3.7Colorado …………………..| 5.8 | 7.5 | 1.7Connecticut ………………..| 6.6 | 8.9 | 2.3Delaware …………………..| 5.7 | 9.0 | 3.3District of Columbia ………..| 8.2 | 12.1 | 3.9Florida ……………………| 7.6 | 11.8 | 4.2 | | |Georgia ……………………| 7.5 | 10.3 | 2.8Hawaii …………………….| 5.1 | 6.9 | 1.8Idaho ……………………..| 6.1 | 9.1 | 3.0Illinois …………………..| 7.2 | 11.1 | 3.9Indiana ……………………| 7.8 | 9.9 | 2.1Iowa ………………………| 4.4 | 6.6 | 2.2Kansas …………………….| 5.0 | 6.6 | 1.6Kentucky …………………..| 7.6 | 10.7 | 3.1Louisiana ………………….| 5.5 | 7.5 | 2.0Maine ……………………..| 6.5 | 8.3 | 1.8 | | |Maryland …………………..| 5.4 | 7.5 | 2.1Massachusetts ………………| 6.4 | 9.4 | 3.0Michigan …………………..| 10.2 | 14.6 | 4.4Minnesota ………………….| 6.6 | 7.4 | .8Mississippi ………………..| 7.8 | 10.6 | 2.8Missouri …………………..| 7.1 | 9.6 | 2.5Montana ……………………| 5.0 | 6.7 | 1.7Nebraska …………………..| 3.9 | 4.7 | .8Nevada …………………….| 8.4 | 13.0 | 4.6New Hampshire ………………| 4.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | | |New Jersey …………………| 6.8 | 10.1 | 3.3New Mexico …………………| 4.7 | 8.3 | 3.6New York …………………..| 6.6 | 9.0 | 2.4North Carolina ……………..| 8.1 | 11.2 | 3.1North Dakota ……………….| 3.3 | 4.4 | 1.1Ohio ………………………| 7.4 | 10.9 | 3.5Oklahoma …………………..| 4.6 | 6.6 | 2.0Oregon …………………….| 8.3 | 11.0 | 2.7Pennsylvania ……………….| 6.4 | 8.9 | 2.5Rhode Island ……………….| 9.4 | 12.9 | 3.5 | | |South Carolina ……………..| 8.8 | 12.6 | 3.8South Dakota ……………….| 3.7 | 4.7 | 1.0Tennessee ………………….| 7.6 | 10.9 | 3.3Texas ……………………..| 5.6 | 8.3 | 2.7Utah ………………………| 4.1 | 6.7 | 2.6Vermont ……………………| 5.9 | 6.9 | 1.0Virginia …………………..| 5.0 | 6.9 | 1.9Washington …………………| 6.5 | 9.5 | 3.0West Virginia ………………| 4.5 | 9.1 | 4.6Wisconsin ………………….| 5.9 | 8.7 | 2.8Wyoming ……………………| 3.2 | 7.5 | 4.3————————————————————————- p = preliminary.Table D. States with statistically significant employment changes fromNovember 2009 to December 2009, seasonally adjusted————————————————————————– | November | December | Over-the-month State | 2009 | 2009(p) | change(p)————————————————————————–Alabama…………………..| 1,898,900 | 1,888,500 | -10,400California………………..| 14,186,800 | 14,148,000 | -38,800Georgia…………………..| 3,854,800 | 3,839,700 | -15,100Illinois………………….| 5,628,500 | 5,612,200 | -16,300Iowa……………………..| 1,482,000 | 1,468,800 | -13,200Michigan………………….| 3,846,700 | 3,831,000 | -15,700Montana…………………..| 437,400 | 431,000 | -6,400Nevada……………………| 1,166,200 | 1,154,600 | -11,600Ohio……………………..| 5,103,600 | 5,086,900 | -16,700South Dakota………………| 404,100 | 400,500 | -3,600 | | |Tennessee…………………| 2,646,600 | 2,636,700 | -9,900Vermont…………………..| 294,600 | 292,200 | -2,400Wisconsin…………………| 2,727,500 | 2,712,300 | -15,200————————————————————————– p = preliminary.Table E. States with statistically significant employment changes fromDecember 2008 to December 2009, seasonally adjusted————————————————————————– | December | December | Over-the-year State | 2008 | 2009(p) | change(p)————————————————————————–Alabama…………………..| 1,953,500 | 1,888,500 | -65,000Arizona…………………..| 2,534,100 | 2,412,000 | -122,100California………………..| 14,727,400 | 14,148,000 | -579,400Colorado………………….| 2,320,600 | 2,234,000 | -86,600Connecticut……………….| 1,673,900 | 1,614,900 | -59,000Delaware………………….| 421,900 | 409,800 | -12,100Florida…………………..| 7,576,100 | 7,343,700 | -232,400Georgia…………………..| 4,013,600 | 3,839,700 | -173,900Hawaii……………………| 609,400 | 586,100 | -23,300Illinois………………….| 5,849,500 | 5,612,200 | -237,300 | | |Indiana…………………..| 2,899,400 | 2,796,300 | -103,100Iowa……………………..| 1,508,900 | 1,468,800 | -40,100Kansas……………………| 1,389,600 | 1,329,900 | -59,700Kentucky………………….| 1,823,800 | 1,764,500 | -59,300Louisiana…………………| 1,948,600 | 1,901,700 | -46,900Maine…………………….| 604,800 | 588,800 | -16,000Maryland………………….| 2,568,400 | 2,524,000 | -44,400Massachusetts……………..| 3,230,200 | 3,164,000 | -66,200Michigan………………….| 4,038,100 | 3,831,000 | -207,100Minnesota…………………| 2,722,300 | 2,642,400 | -79,900 | | |Mississippi……………….| 1,127,200 | 1,101,400 | -25,800Missouri………………….| 2,770,900 | 2,708,300 | -62,600Montana…………………..| 444,700 | 431,000 | -13,700Nebraska………………….| 963,700 | 938,300 | -25,400Nevada……………………| 1,235,600 | 1,154,600 | -81,000New Jersey………………..| 4,000,500 | 3,910,400 | -90,100New Mexico………………..| 843,100 | 817,100 | -26,000New York………………….| 8,713,500 | 8,544,900 | -168,600North Carolina…………….| 4,048,200 | 3,924,000 | -124,200Ohio……………………..| 5,271,800 | 5,086,900 | -184,900 | | |Oklahoma………………….| 1,595,600 | 1,558,900 | -36,700Oregon……………………| 1,689,600 | 1,617,200 | -72,400Pennsylvania………………| 5,749,200 | 5,598,900 | -150,300Rhode Island………………| 471,200 | 453,800 | -17,400South Carolina…………….| 1,884,100 | 1,846,400 | -37,700South Dakota………………| 411,400 | 400,500 | -10,900Tennessee…………………| 2,726,100 | 2,636,700 | -89,400Texas…………………….| 10,631,300 | 10,355,300 | -276,000Utah……………………..| 1,246,700 | 1,200,100 | -46,600Virginia………………….| 3,711,200 | 3,656,500 | -54,700 | | |Washington………………..| 2,923,700 | 2,834,900 | -88,800West Virginia……………..| 757,400 | 738,500 | -18,900Wisconsin…………………| 2,832,800 | 2,712,300 | -120,500Wyoming…………………..| 303,100 | 282,400 | -20,700————————————————————————– p = preliminary.last_img

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *